Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: OH 5188 at 09:47 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–35%.

Safest bet that day OH 5188 CLT 09:47 → MYR 10:56 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3123 CLT 20:44 → MYR 21:43 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5188 PSA	CLT 09:47	MYR 10:56	19%	4%	1.3%	no record
AA 2495 American	CLT 12:40	MYR 13:46	20%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 5315 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 11:20	MYR 12:29	20%	5%	1.3%	82%
AA 2431 American Flight history →	CLT 07:32	MYR 08:36	22%	7%	1.2%	100%worse than usual
OH 5398 PSA	CLT 14:35	MYR 15:44	26%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 2214 American Flight history →	CLT 14:30	MYR 15:31	28%	9%	1.0%	70%
AA 2886 American Flight history →	CLT 18:52	MYR 20:03	31%	14%	1.8%	68%
AA 2212 American Flight history →	CLT 16:19	MYR 17:25	33%	15%	1.0%	60%
AA 3123 American Flight history →	CLT 20:44	MYR 21:43	35%	14%	1.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON