Today: AA 1044 at 13:23 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–33%.

Safest bet today AA 1044 CLT 13:23 → PHX 14:58 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 1073 CLT 18:23 → PHX 19:51 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1044 American Flight history →	CLT 13:23	PHX 14:58	19%	4%	0.8%	80%
AA 1711 American Flight history →	CLT 14:41	PHX 16:16	21%	5%	0.8%	81%
AA 2902 American Flight history →	CLT 13:13	PHX 14:32	21%	4%	0.8%	81%
AA 1678 American Flight history →	CLT 07:41	PHX 09:05	21%	3%	0.2%	89%worse than usual
AA 1986 American Flight history →	CLT 09:41	PHX 11:04	24%	3%	0.2%	90%worse than usual
AA 588 American Flight history →	CLT 11:37	PHX 12:56	25%	4%	0.2%	87%worse than usual
AA 3046 American Flight history →	CLT 16:40	PHX 18:13	25%	6%	0.8%	82%
AA 3220 American Flight history →	CLT 14:31	PHX 15:50	27%	6%	0.8%	61%
AA 1779 American Flight history →	CLT 16:50	PHX 18:14	30%	6%	0.8%	72%
AA 2613 American	CLT 22:24	PHX 23:57	30%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 2923 American Flight history →	CLT 20:35	PHX 21:53	30%	7%	0.8%	59%
AA 1274 American	CLT 18:14	PHX 19:47	31%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 1617 American	CLT 20:20	PHX 21:41	31%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 1073 American Flight history →	CLT 18:23	PHX 19:51	33%	8%	0.8%	61%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	CLT 06:35 → BNA 07:00WN 1167	1h 05m Nashville	BNA 08:05 → PHX 09:40WN 3770	6h 05m	95%	78%
American Details →	CLT 07:05 → SAT 09:02AA 2487	1h 13m San Antonio	SAT 10:15 → PHX 10:22AA 53	6h 17m	94%	67%
American Details →	CLT 11:30 → DFW 13:16AA 1285	1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:30 → PHX 14:57AA 2108	6h 27m	89%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON