Today: AA 1781 at 11:10 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–37%.

Safest bet today AA 1781 CLT 11:10 → RSW 13:14 · 26% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1176 CLT 20:56 → RSW 22:52 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1781 American	CLT 11:10	RSW 13:14	26%	7%	0.4%	no record
AA 2444 American Flight history →	CLT 13:10	RSW 15:09	33%	8%	0.4%	69%
AA 1930 American Flight history →	CLT 16:59	RSW 19:02	33%	7%	0.6%	76%
AA 1176 American Flight history →	CLT 20:56	RSW 22:52	37%	9%	2.1%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON