Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2487 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 2487 CLT 07:05 → SAT 09:02 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2441 CLT 20:19 → SAT 22:16 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2487 American Flight history →	CLT 07:05	SAT 09:02	19%	4%	0.3%	89%
AA 2889 American	CLT 08:46	SAT 10:51	21%	4%	0.3%	no record
AA 2934 American Flight history →	CLT 14:58	SAT 17:02	30%	5%	0.8%	80%
AA 2496 American Flight history →	CLT 14:58	SAT 16:57	33%	6%	0.8%	58%
AA 1258 American Flight history →	CLT 18:34	SAT 20:40	37%	8%	0.9%	72%
AA 2441 American Flight history →	CLT 20:19	SAT 22:16	41%	9%	0.9%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON