Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:20 pm at Charlotte); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 39–42% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 6412 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CLT 20:20	SHV 21:51	39%	11%	0.4%	58%
OO 6429 SkyWest	CLT 20:23	SHV 21:46	42%	11%	0.4%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Shreveport on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Shreveport is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	CLT 17:04 → IAH 18:54UA 4020 · flown by Mesa	2h 46m Houston	IAH 21:40 → SHV 22:44UA 5395 · flown by SkyWest	6h 40m	98%	67%
Delta Details →	CLT 16:49 → ATL 18:10DL 3032	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → SHV 22:04DL 4095 · flown by SkyWest	6h 15m	93%	66%
American Details →	CLT 18:00 → DFW 20:00AA 2409	1h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:35 → SHV 22:44AA 6284 · flown by SkyWest	5h 44m	76%	56%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CLT 18:16 → DFW 20:09AA 2815	1h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:35 → SHV 22:44AA 6284 · flown by SkyWest	5h 28m	72%	53%
United Details →	CLT 17:04 → IAH 18:54UA 4020 · flown by Mesa	56m Houston	IAH 19:50 → SHV 21:03UA 4682 · flown by SkyWest	4h 59m	74%	49%
Delta Details →	CLT 16:49 → ATL 18:10DL 3032	55m Atlanta	ATL 19:05 → SHV 19:52DL 3505 · flown by SkyWest	4h 03m	66%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON