Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:53 am at Charlotte)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Denver, leaving 16:08, is the safest bet: 61% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 48% of the time.

Nonstops today


AA 2508 American Flight history →	CLT 18:31	SMF 21:03	38%	9%	0.4%	68%
AA 1994 American	CLT 18:50	SMF 21:30	39%	8%	0.4%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 18:10 → SLC 20:29DL 2070	2h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582	8h 34m	99%	88%
American Details →	CLT 16:50 → LAX 18:55AA 1499	2h 49m Los Angeles	LAX 21:44 → SMF 23:20AA 4908 · flown by SkyWest	9h 30m	94%	80%
United Details →	CLT 15:01 → ORD 16:19UA 3491 · flown by Republic	3h 34m Chicago	ORD 19:53 → SMF 22:39UA 1828	10h 38m	100%	74%
United Details →	CLT 16:08 → DEN 17:55UA 2609	2h 35m Denver	DEN 20:30 → SMF 22:11UA 1602	9h 03m	96%	74%
Delta Details →	CLT 14:57 → MSP 16:44DL 2819	2h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 18:45 → SMF 20:35DL 574	8h 38m	91%	72%
American Details →	CLT 11:56 → LAX 13:55AA 1213	3h 23m Los Angeles	LAX 17:18 → SMF 18:51AA 6346 · flown by SkyWest	9h 55m	100%	69%
United Details →	CLT 13:06 → ORD 14:30UA 3442 · flown by Republic	1h 35m Chicago	ORD 16:05 → SMF 18:26UA 1519	8h 20m	89%	69%
Southwest Details →	CLT 19:05 → MDW 20:10WN 1513	2h 20m Chicago	MDW 22:30 → SMF 00:48 +1WN 2994	8h 43m	95%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CLT 14:33 → LAX 16:30AA 1502	48m Los Angeles	LAX 17:18 → SMF 18:51AA 6346 · flown by SkyWest	7h 18m	59%	41%
American Details →	CLT 18:15 → DFW 20:09AA 2815	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:59 → SMF 22:33AA 3314	7h 18m	63%	34%
American Details →	CLT 19:52 → DFW 21:44AA 1698	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:30 → SMF 23:59AA 509	7h 07m	48%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON