tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:10 pm at Charlotte)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Denver, leaving 16:08, is the safest bet: 64% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
AA 358 American Flight history → CLT 18:00 SNA 20:06 33% 6% 0.6% 73%
AA 1139 American CLT 18:15 SNA 20:29 33% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CLT 15:01 → ORD 16:19UA 3491 · flown by Republic 3h 26m Chicago ORD 19:45 → SNA 22:19UA 308 10h 18m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → CLT 14:35 → ORD 15:56AA 2080 2h 32m Chicago ORD 18:28 → SNA 20:51AA 1179 9h 16m 96% 69%
UnitedDetails → CLT 16:08 → DEN 17:55UA 2609 2h 37m Denver DEN 20:32 → SNA 22:01UA 725 8h 53m 95% 69%
AmericanDetails → CLT 16:40 → PHX 18:13AA 3046 2h 54m Phoenix PHX 21:07 → SNA 22:26AA 2637 8h 46m 97% 68%
DeltaDetails → CLT 14:57 → MSP 16:44DL 2819 1h 44m Minneapolis MSP 18:28 → SNA 20:20DL 2107 8h 23m 90% 63%
UnitedDetails → CLT 17:04 → IAH 18:54UA 4020 · flown by Mesa 1h 25m Houston IAH 20:19 → SNA 22:06UA 326 8h 02m 85% 62%
UnitedDetails → CLT 14:56 → IAD 16:30UA 6203 · flown by Mesa 1h 11m Dulles IAD 17:41 → SNA 20:22UA 2319 8h 26m 90% 61%
AmericanDetails → CLT 15:04 → DFW 16:58AA 1709 2h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:15 → SNA 20:22AA 806 8h 18m 94% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → CLT 18:23 → PHX 19:51AA 1073 1h 16m Phoenix PHX 21:07 → SNA 22:26AA 2637 7h 03m 73% 51%
AmericanDetails → CLT 18:16 → DFW 20:09AA 2815 1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:16 → SNA 22:24AA 348 7h 08m 68% 45%
AmericanDetails → CLT 16:16 → ORD 17:39AA 536 49m Chicago ORD 18:28 → SNA 20:51AA 1179 7h 35m 61% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON