Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2497 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 2497 CLT 07:25 → STL 08:28 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 459 CLT 22:56 → STL 23:58 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2497 American Flight history →	CLT 07:25	STL 08:28	13%	4%	0.3%	89%
WN 1241 Southwest	CLT 10:40	STL 11:37	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
OH 5021 PSA	CLT 14:55	STL 16:01	18%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 2733 American Flight history →	CLT 07:37	STL 08:33	19%	6%	1.0%	92%worse than usual
AA 2717 American Flight history →	CLT 11:00	STL 11:55	19%	8%	1.0%	83%
WN 1173 Southwest Flight history →	CLT 16:40	STL 17:50	23%	6%	0.5%	65%
AA 2731 American Flight history →	CLT 16:21	STL 17:21	24%	8%	0.9%	69%
AA 2686 American Flight history →	CLT 18:59	STL 20:03	26%	10%	0.9%	75%
AA 459 American Flight history →	CLT 22:56	STL 23:58	26%	9%	0.9%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON