Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:55 pm at Charlotte); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36%, against 26% on a calm day. Safest: AA 2662 at 18:25, 36%.

Nonstops today


AA 2662 American Flight history →	CLT 18:25	TUL 19:58	36%	8%	0.3%	72%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CLT 16:37 → MIA 18:34AA 400	2h 51m Miami	MIA 21:25 → TUL 23:43AA 3380 · flown by Envoy	8h 06m	95%	82%
American Details →	CLT 15:05 → LGA 16:25AA 2068	3h 04m New York	LGA 19:29 → TUL 22:08AA 4341 · flown by Republic	8h 03m	93%	70%
American Details →	CLT 18:26 → ORD 19:51AA 2488	2h 14m Chicago	ORD 22:05 → TUL 00:06 +1AA 4281 · flown by Envoy	6h 40m	84%	69%
United Details →	CLT 16:08 → DEN 17:55UA 2609	3h 00m Denver	DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest	8h 39m	95%	67%
American Details →	CLT 15:04 → DFW 16:58AA 1709	3h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:51 → TUL 22:07AA 2014	8h 03m	99%	62%
United Details →	CLT 17:04 → IAH 18:54UA 4020 · flown by Mesa	1h 11m Houston	IAH 20:05 → TUL 21:56UA 1927	5h 52m	81%	59%
American Details →	CLT 18:00 → DFW 20:00AA 2409	2h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:38 → TUL 23:47AA 531	6h 47m	90%	56%
Southwest Details →	CLT 19:05 → MDW 20:10WN 1513	1h 20m Chicago	MDW 21:30 → TUL 23:26WN 301	5h 21m	78%	56%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CLT 16:26 → LGA 18:29AA 1722	1h 00m New York	LGA 19:29 → TUL 22:08AA 4341 · flown by Republic	6h 42m	45%	34%
American Details →	CLT 16:50 → PHX 18:14AA 1779	50m Phoenix	PHX 19:04 → TUL 23:30AA 4037 · flown by Envoy	7h 40m	46%	34%
American Details →	CLT 19:52 → DFW 21:44AA 1698	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:38 → TUL 23:47AA 531	4h 55m	42%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON