Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 6439 at 16:15 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 6439 CLT 16:15 → TYS 17:37 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest OH 5164 CLT 18:26 → TYS 19:37 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 6439 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CLT 16:15	TYS 17:37	20%	8%	0.7%	71%
OO 6470 SkyWest	CLT 16:41	TYS 17:54	23%	8%	0.7%	no record
OH 5159 PSA	CLT 15:11	TYS 16:22	28%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 5511 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 22:40	TYS 23:51	30%	9%	0.8%	44%
OH 5164 PSA	CLT 18:26	TYS 19:37	31%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 5947 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 07:12	TYS 08:31	10%	2%	0.0%	90%
AA 5953 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 11:11	TYS 12:34	10%	7%	0.0%	90%
AA 5950 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 09:15	TYS 10:38	12%	6%	0.0%	88%
AA 5831 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 14:24	TYS 15:42	18%	11%	0.0%	82%
AA 5909 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 20:35	TYS 21:58	35%	14%	0.0%	65%
AA 5957 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 18:17	TYS 19:38	45%	12%	3.3%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON