Today looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 15–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 5446 CLT 09:01 → XNA 10:35 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 5233 CLT 16:31 → XNA 17:54 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5446 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 09:01	XNA 10:35	15%	3%	0.6%	81%
AA 5444 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 11:44	XNA 13:12	16%	4%	0.6%	86%
AA 4087 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLT 18:05	XNA 19:36	21%	4%	0.5%	82%
MQ 3367 Envoy	CLT 22:31	XNA 23:48	22%	3%	0.7%	no record
OH 5491 PSA	CLT 13:20	XNA 14:44	24%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 5233 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 16:31	XNA 17:54	24%	4%	0.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON