Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:03 pm at Columbus); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


YX 4399 Republic	CMH 14:52	JFK 17:01	11%	4%	0.4%	no record
DL 5650 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 18:15	JFK 20:29	15%	4%	0.7%	82%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CMH 14:07 → DTW 15:20DL 5774 · flown by Republic	58m Detroit	DTW 16:18 → JFK 18:29DL 2934	4h 22m	92%	74%
Delta Details →	CMH 17:06 → ATL 18:47DL 2892	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → JFK 00:50 +1DL 1632	7h 44m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	CMH 14:43 → ATL 16:22DL 1750	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398	6h 46m	92%	73%
American Details →	CMH 15:44 → CLT 17:31AA 5134 · flown by PSA	3h 23m Charlotte	CLT 20:54 → JFK 23:00AA 1727	7h 16m	99%	69%
American Details →	CMH 13:11 → ORD 13:06AA 3572 · flown by Envoy	3h 24m Chicago	ORD 16:30 → JFK 20:04AA 1421	6h 53m	96%	69%
American Details →	CMH 13:55 → ORD 14:29AA 3961 · flown by Envoy	1h 54m Chicago	ORD 16:23 → JFK 19:26AA 1315	5h 31m	94%	64%
Delta Details →	CMH 17:16 → ATL 19:00DL 2200	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 20:30 → JFK 23:09DL 2101	5h 53m	85%	64%
Delta Details →	CMH 17:40 → BOS 19:50DL 5653 · flown by Republic	1h 30m Boston	BOS 21:20 → JFK 22:47DL 5702 · flown by Republic	5h 07m	83%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON