tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:21 pm at Columbus); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via O'Hare, leaving 16:33, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 36% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CMH 16:33 → ORD 17:07UA 3465 · flown by Republic 2h 58m Chicago ORD 20:05 → SAN 22:34UA 1531 9h 01m 98% 66%
UnitedDetails → CMH 16:20 → ORD 17:01UA 3484 · flown by Republic 3h 10m Chicago ORD 20:11 → SAN 22:23UA 1564 9h 03m 98% 64%
UnitedDetails → CMH 17:10 → DEN 18:19UA 1389 2h 45m Denver DEN 21:04 → SAN 22:43UA 2395 8h 33m 97% 61%
DeltaDetails → CMH 19:20 → MSP 20:27DL 2113 1h 20m Minneapolis MSP 21:47 → SAN 23:30DL 2146 7h 10m 87% 59%
DeltaDetails → CMH 17:06 → ATL 18:47DL 2892 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 21:28 → SAN 22:57DL 896 8h 51m 96% 52%
SouthwestDetails → CMH 17:35 → BWI 19:00WN 1034 2h 05m Baltimore BWI 21:05 → SAN 23:25WN 1089 8h 50m 95% 51%
AmericanDetails → CMH 15:47 → ORD 16:29AA 4950 · flown by SkyWest 2h 37m Chicago ORD 19:06 → SAN 21:46AA 1861 8h 59m 95% 51%
SouthwestDetails → CMH 17:45 → BNA 18:05WN 5058 4h 00m Nashville BNA 22:05 → SAN 00:14 +1WN 709 9h 29m 100% 50%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CMH 19:31 → SFO 21:37UA 2861 1h 05m San Francisco SFO 22:42 → SAN 00:31 +1UA 2142 8h 00m 70% 45%
DeltaDetails → CMH 17:16 → ATL 19:00DL 2200 49m Atlanta ATL 19:49 → SAN 21:16DL 819 7h 00m 72% 32%
AlaskaDetails → CMH 18:07 → SEA 20:15AS 450 54m Seattle SEA 21:09 → SAN 23:54AS 600 8h 47m 36% 15%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON