Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29%, against 11% on a calm day. Safest: MX 2300 at 19:37, 25%.

Safest bet today MX 2300 CMH 19:37 → TPA 22:05 · 25% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1491 CMH 15:19 → TPA 17:02 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Weather 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


MX 2300 Breeze	CMH 19:37	TPA 22:05	25%	16%	1.9%	no record
WN 1278 Southwest	CMH 22:00	TPA 00:28	28%	10%	0.4%	no record
WN 1217 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 19:40	TPA 21:55	31%	9%	0.4%	52%
WN 1491 Southwest	CMH 15:19	TPA 17:02	31%	7%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON