Today: DL 5790 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–18%.

Safest bet today DL 5790 CVG 06:00 → BOS 08:22 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 5601 CVG 11:52 → BOS 14:09 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5790 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 06:00	BOS 08:22	13%	7%	1.3%	91%
DL 5620 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 20:20	BOS 22:47	14%	6%	0.6%	84%
DL 5598 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 14:47	BOS 17:10	16%	7%	0.6%	73%
AA 3807 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CVG 07:10	BOS 09:25	16%	4%	1.3%	96%worse than usual
AA 4760 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 15:00	BOS 17:21	16%	9%	0.7%	59%
DL 5789 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 17:25	BOS 19:48	17%	7%	0.6%	67%
AA 4628 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 18:20	BOS 20:40	18%	6%	0.6%	27%
DL 5601 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 11:52	BOS 14:09	39%	17%	1.3%	85%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON