Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:37 am at Hebron); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Fort Lauderdale, leaving 12:18, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CVG 12:18 → FLL 14:54DL 2776	2h 39m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 17:33 → LAX 20:07DL 573	10h 49m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	CVG 11:00 → MSP 11:56DL 954	3h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 15:45 → LAX 17:35DL 2114	9h 35m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	CVG 12:30 → SLC 14:14DL 678	2h 56m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → LAX 18:07DL 1161	8h 37m	99%	78%
United Details →	CVG 10:18 → IAD 11:52UA 3493 · flown by Republic	3h 23m Dulles	IAD 15:15 → LAX 17:47UA 684	10h 29m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	CVG 16:16 → ATL 17:51DL 3169	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 20:50 → LAX 22:32DL 331	9h 16m	98%	77%
United Details →	CVG 11:17 → ORD 11:53UA 3485 · flown by Republic	3h 54m Chicago	ORD 15:47 → LAX 18:20UA 576	10h 03m	98%	76%
Southwest Details →	CVG 11:20 → DEN 12:15WN 1249	1h 31m Denver	DEN 13:46 → LAX 15:14WN 1645	6h 54m	95%	75%
Delta Details →	CVG 11:40 → SLC 13:05DL 2876	2h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:40 → LAX 16:36DL 841	7h 56m	96%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	CVG 13:56 → ORD 14:29UA 4746 · flown by SkyWest	52m Chicago	ORD 15:21 → LAX 17:46UA 542	6h 50m	62%	46%
Delta Details →	CVG 17:25 → BOS 19:48DL 5789 · flown by Republic	53m Boston	BOS 20:41 → LAX 23:54DL 610	9h 29m	55%	39%
Delta Details →	CVG 15:58 → MCO 18:23DL 2824	49m Orlando	MCO 19:12 → LAX 21:30DL 872	8h 32m	56%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON