Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:52 am at Hebron); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 19:59, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops today


AS 508 Alaska Flight history →	CVG 17:07	SEA 19:07	20%	4%	0.8%	72%
AS 519 Alaska	CVG 08:39	SEA 10:22	25%	4%	0.8%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CVG 19:43 → MSP 20:41DL 703	1h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 22:08 → SEA 23:58DL 505	7h 15m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	CVG 16:30 → MSP 17:32DL 3113	1h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 18:55 → SEA 20:48DL 881	7h 18m	95%	79%
Southwest Details →	CVG 08:00 → MDW 08:05WN 3016	2h 35m Chicago	MDW 10:40 → SEA 13:10WN 1340	8h 10m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	CVG 16:16 → ATL 17:51DL 3169	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → SEA 23:59DL 903	10h 43m	100%	78%
United Details →	CVG 09:08 → ORD 09:45UA 3497 · flown by Republic	3h 45m Chicago	ORD 13:30 → SEA 16:09UA 1660	10h 01m	100%	78%
American Details →	CVG 08:58 → ORD 09:35AA 3894 · flown by Envoy	3h 27m Chicago	ORD 13:02 → SEA 15:48AA 2672	9h 50m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	CVG 11:00 → MSP 11:56DL 954	3h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	9h 00m	98%	77%
United Details →	CVG 10:18 → IAD 11:52UA 3493 · flown by Republic	1h 18m Dulles	IAD 13:10 → SEA 15:55UA 2241	8h 37m	95%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CVG 20:01 → DFW 21:30AA 1728	1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:41 → SEA 00:57 +1AA 1487	7h 56m	72%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON