Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:00 am at Dallas)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 34%, against 24% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2965 at 15:15, 32%.

Nonstops today


WN 2965 Southwest	DAL 15:15	CHS 18:47	32%	6%	0.9%	no record
WN 4700 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 11:05	CHS 14:35	36%	5%	0.5%	68%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → CHS 00:26 +1DL 2850	7h 27m	98%	82%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:00 → BNA 08:45WN 1519	1h 35m Nashville	BNA 10:20 → CHS 12:58WN 2349	4h 58m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 14:40 → CHS 15:53DL 1381	4h 46m	93%	76%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:20 → BNA 10:10WN 434	3h 29m Nashville	BNA 13:39 → CHS 16:14WN 482	6h 54m	99%	76%
Southwest Details →	DAL 14:05 → MDW 16:20WN 1358	3h 25m Chicago	MDW 19:45 → CHS 22:55WN 2042	7h 50m	100%	75%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → BWI 09:55WN 1280	1h 40m Baltimore	BWI 11:35 → CHS 13:15WN 899	6h 15m	99%	73%
Southwest Details →	DAL 13:40 → BNA 15:30WN 526	3h 35m Nashville	BNA 19:05 → CHS 21:42WN 504	7h 02m	98%	70%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 19:27 → CHS 20:42DL 2493	7h 23m	96%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 15:10 → BWI 19:10WN 1283	51m Baltimore	BWI 20:01 → CHS 21:53WN 3358	5h 43m	67%	47%
Southwest Details →	DAL 13:10 → DEN 14:10WN 1346	1h 10m Denver	DEN 15:20 → CHS 20:40WN 1142	6h 30m	61%	40%
Southwest Details →	DAL 11:05 → AUS 12:05WN 930	1h 00m Austin	AUS 13:05 → CHS 16:45WN 269	4h 40m	57%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON