Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:15 pm at Dallas); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 1317 at 13:20, with a 37% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 1317 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 13:20	JAX 16:40	37%	7%	0.6%	35%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 14:05 → MDW 16:20WN 1358	3h 00m Chicago	MDW 19:20 → JAX 22:40WN 2792	7h 35m	100%	76%
Southwest Details →	DAL 16:02 → HOU 17:22WN 39	3h 13m Houston	HOU 20:35 → JAX 23:51WN 3068	6h 49m	99%	68%
Southwest Details →	DAL 16:30 → HOU 17:45WN 41	2h 50m Houston	HOU 20:35 → JAX 23:55WN 4797	6h 25m	98%	67%
Southwest Details →	DAL 12:25 → BNA 14:15WN 1275	3h 16m Nashville	BNA 17:31 → JAX 20:10WN 170	6h 45m	99%	64%
Southwest Details →	DAL 15:00 → BNA 16:50WN 5047	4h 00m Nashville	BNA 20:50 → JAX 23:29WN 4631	7h 29m	100%	62%
Southwest Details →	DAL 13:40 → BNA 15:30WN 526	3h 30m Nashville	BNA 19:00 → JAX 21:40WN 4624	7h 00m	98%	61%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → JAX 00:09 +1DL 2276	7h 10m	97%	58%
Southwest Details →	DAL 15:10 → BWI 19:10WN 1283	1h 40m Baltimore	BWI 20:50 → JAX 23:00WN 4438	6h 50m	90%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 18:24 → HOU 19:43WN 49	52m Houston	HOU 20:35 → JAX 23:55WN 4797	4h 31m	66%	45%
Southwest Details →	DAL 13:00 → STL 14:45WN 1412	50m St Louis	STL 15:35 → JAX 18:35WN 3933	4h 35m	64%	45%
Southwest Details →	DAL 15:10 → BWI 19:10WN 1283	51m Baltimore	BWI 20:01 → JAX 22:15WN 1037	6h 05m	65%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON