Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Denver, leaving 09:45, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day


WN 1377 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:55	PDX 09:55	16%	2%	0.1%	88%
WN 4355 Southwest	DAL 07:30	PDX 09:36	16%	2%	0.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → DEN 07:00WN 1296	1h 31m Denver	DEN 08:31 → PDX 10:14WN 3459	6h 14m	97%	89%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → PHX 06:30WN 1379	1h 20m Phoenix	PHX 07:50 → PDX 10:25WN 4092	6h 25m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → MDW 08:15WN 1355	1h 30m Chicago	MDW 09:45 → PDX 12:05WN 2217	8h 05m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503	10h 49m	98%	83%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:50 → OAK 10:30WN 1268	3h 20m Oakland	OAK 13:50 → PDX 15:39WN 3565	8h 49m	98%	83%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:40 → SMF 09:15WN 4218	3h 10m Sacramento	SMF 12:25 → PDX 14:07WN 3314	8h 27m	98%	82%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:10 → SAN 07:05WN 1393	2h 55m San Diego	SAN 10:00 → PDX 12:32WN 738	8h 22m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	8h 53m	94%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 20:30 → LAS 21:15WN 1128	1h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 22:15 → PDX 00:35 +1WN 199	6h 05m	72%	53%
Southwest Details →	DAL 13:05 → LAS 13:45WN 3061	55m Las Vegas	LAS 14:40 → PDX 16:55WN 2126	5h 50m	74%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON