Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 4329 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:45	PHL 12:05	17%	3%	0.4%	77%
WN 4832 Southwest	DAL 07:50	PHL 12:01	19%	3%	0.4%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → MDW 08:15WN 1355	3h 30m Chicago	MDW 11:45 → PHL 14:54WN 3266	7h 54m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:20 → STL 09:05WN 274	1h 35m St Louis	STL 10:40 → PHL 14:01WN 1109	5h 41m	95%	78%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:30 → MDW 10:45WN 1356	2h 45m Chicago	MDW 13:30 → PHL 16:39WN 2953	7h 09m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 13:00 → PHL 15:02DL 2131	7h 57m	97%	77%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → DEN 07:00WN 1296	3h 30m Denver	DEN 10:30 → PHL 16:05WN 3157	9h 05m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	8h 00m	98%	76%
Southwest Details →	DAL 14:05 → MDW 16:20WN 1358	2h 35m Chicago	MDW 18:55 → PHL 22:04WN 4757	6h 59m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329	7h 05m	97%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DAL 18:39 → ATL 22:00DL 2780	56m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	5h 20m	74%	58%
Southwest Details →	DAL 15:21 → MDW 17:39WN 1414	1h 16m Chicago	MDW 18:55 → PHL 21:55WN 4263	5h 34m	75%	54%
Southwest Details →	DAL 10:00 → MCO 13:40WN 1540	1h 00m Orlando	MCO 14:40 → PHL 17:15WN 2679	6h 15m	72%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON