Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:24 am at Dallas)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 1460 Southwest	DAL 11:55	SDF 15:01	17%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 910 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 13:55	SDF 16:55	22%	5%	0.5%	47%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 08:30 → MDW 10:45WN 1356	2h 00m Chicago	MDW 12:45 → SDF 14:55WN 4473	5h 25m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 23:02 → SDF 00:26 +1DL 2624	7h 27m	98%	84%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:01 → HOU 09:19WN 5	3h 56m Houston	HOU 13:15 → SDF 16:31WN 19	7h 30m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	DAL 07:00 → BNA 08:45WN 1519	1h 30m Nashville	BNA 10:15 → SDF 12:20WN 717	4h 20m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → SDF 17:49DL 1126	6h 42m	98%	82%
Southwest Details →	DAL 14:05 → MDW 16:20WN 1358	3h 25m Chicago	MDW 19:45 → SDF 22:00WN 4597	6h 55m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:40 → DEN 09:45WN 239	3h 10m Denver	DEN 12:55 → SDF 17:25WN 1712	7h 45m	98%	78%
Southwest Details →	DAL 09:45 → DEN 10:45WN 1300	3h 00m Denver	DEN 13:45 → SDF 18:18WN 1766	7h 33m	100%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 15:21 → MDW 17:39WN 1414	1h 16m Chicago	MDW 18:55 → SDF 21:14WN 4731	4h 53m	75%	60%
Southwest Details →	DAL 11:35 → DEN 12:35WN 3563	1h 10m Denver	DEN 13:45 → SDF 18:18WN 1766	5h 43m	74%	57%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	54m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → SDF 17:49DL 1126	4h 30m	63%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON