tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 51 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1373 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 1373 DAL 06:00 → LAX 07:14 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2597 DFW 20:46 → BUR 21:58 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time
Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 1373 Southwest DAL 06:00 LAX 07:14 7% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 1326 Southwest Flight history → DAL 06:00 LAX 07:10 7% 1% 0.6% 93%
AA 1686 American Flight history → DFW 06:59 SNA 08:14 9% 4% 0.7% 90%
DL 439 Delta Flight history → DFW 07:35 LAX 08:45 10% 3% 0.7% 92%
AA 3303 American DFW 06:02 LAX 07:18 10% 3% 0.7% no record
AA 2005 American Flight history → DFW 06:00 LAX 07:13 10% 3% 0.8% 82%
DL 521 Delta Flight history → DFW 13:45 LAX 14:58 11% 3% 0.6% 88%
AA 2680 American Flight history → DFW 08:25 SNA 09:33 11% 3% 0.7% 91%
AA 2644 American Flight history → DFW 07:10 SNA 08:18 11% 4% 0.7% 83%
AA 1043 American DFW 07:21 LAX 08:42 13% 3% 0.8% no record
AA 2238 American Flight history → DFW 08:20 ONT 09:29 14% 3% 0.7% 90%
AA 2672 American Flight history → DFW 09:40 SNA 10:48 14% 5% 0.7% 83%
AA 1154 American Flight history → DFW 07:20 LAX 08:35 15% 3% 0.8% 76%
WN 4076 Southwest Flight history → DAL 11:55 BUR 13:05 16% 5% 0.6% 71%
F9 2273 Frontier Flight history → DFW 07:35 LAX 08:54 16% 4% 0.7% 85%
AA 2669 American Flight history → DFW 10:53 SNA 12:05 17% 6% 0.6% 61%
AA 2684 American Flight history → DFW 12:23 SNA 13:31 17% 5% 0.6% 80%
DL 948 Delta Flight history → DFW 20:35 LAX 21:50 17% 5% 0.7% 86%
AA 1996 American Flight history → DFW 08:35 LAX 09:49 18% 4% 0.7% 83%
AA 500 American Flight history → DFW 09:40 LAX 10:52 18% 4% 0.7% 75%
AA 2827 American Flight history → DFW 10:45 LAX 11:57 18% 5% 0.7% 73%
AA 348 American Flight history → DFW 21:16 SNA 22:24 18% 4% 0.8% 74%
WN 1327 Southwest Flight history → DAL 11:10 LAX 12:20 19% 3% 0.5% 58%
WN 1375 Southwest Flight history → DAL 14:25 ONT 15:25 20% 4% 0.6% 61%
F9 4689 Frontier Flight history → DFW 07:31 ONT 08:37 20% 5% 1.0% 79%
AA 2242 American Flight history → DFW 10:40 ONT 11:45 20% 5% 0.7% 76%
AA 2041 American Flight history → DFW 11:41 LAX 12:53 20% 5% 0.7% 76%
AA 3334 American Flight history → DFW 13:11 LAX 14:20 22% 6% 0.7% 75%
AA 2668 American Flight history → DFW 16:24 SNA 17:37 22% 6% 0.7% 71%
AA 1617 American Flight history → DFW 10:56 BUR 12:05 22% 7% 0.8% 71%
AA 2688 American Flight history → DFW 14:30 SNA 15:36 22% 6% 0.7% 61%
F9 4963 Frontier Flight history → DFW 16:08 LAX 17:30 23% 11% 0.7% 76%
AA 2239 American Flight history → DFW 12:20 ONT 13:22 24% 6% 0.7% 58%
AA 806 American Flight history → DFW 19:15 SNA 20:22 24% 5% 0.8% 68%
WN 1336 Southwest Flight history → DAL 18:30 LGB 19:35 24% 5% 0.5% 42%
WN 4300 Southwest Flight history → DAL 16:25 SNA 17:30 26% 5% 0.5% 76%
AA 2732 American Flight history → DFW 15:30 LAX 16:39 28% 8% 0.8% 45%
WN 3161 Southwest Flight history → DAL 15:30 LAX 16:40 28% 5% 0.5% 45%
F9 3325 Frontier Flight history → DFW 13:35 SNA 14:47 28% 10% 0.8% 68%
AA 966 American Flight history → DFW 16:30 LAX 17:45 28% 8% 0.8% 67%
AA 1972 American Flight history → DFW 17:30 LAX 18:44 30% 9% 0.8% 53%
AA 2236 American Flight history → DFW 18:50 ONT 19:59 31% 9% 0.7% 62%
AA 2766 American Flight history → DFW 18:30 LAX 19:45 32% 9% 0.7% 56%
AA 711 American Flight history → DFW 21:27 ONT 22:32 33% 12% 0.7% 53%
WN 1330 Southwest Flight history → DAL 22:55 LAX 00:10 33% 8% 0.6% 55%
AA 3287 American Flight history → DFW 21:36 LAX 22:49 35% 9% 0.7% 43%
AA 1534 American Flight history → DFW 22:52 ONT 23:59 35% 10% 0.8% 39%
WN 1329 Southwest Flight history → DAL 20:40 LAX 21:50 37% 7% 0.5% 42%
AA 1084 American Flight history → DFW 20:49 LAX 22:03 37% 9% 0.7% 44%
AA 1504 American Flight history → DFW 22:31 LAX 23:45 37% 8% 0.8% 61%
AA 2597 American Flight history → DFW 20:46 BUR 21:58 41% 13% 0.9% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON