Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 34 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2639 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 2639 DFW 07:20 → IAD 11:26 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 1295 DAL 18:50 → DCA 22:45 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 22% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2639 United Flight history →	DFW 07:20	IAD 11:26	8%	3%	0.6%	90%
WN 1280 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:00	BWI 09:55	8%	1%	0.6%	90%
WN 1332 Southwest	DAL 06:03	BWI 09:55	9%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1281 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 07:20	BWI 11:15	9%	1%	0.6%	84%
WN 3351 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:10	DCA 10:00	9%	2%	0.7%	94%
AA 1618 American Flight history →	DFW 05:02	DCA 09:03	9%	3%	0.8%	88%
AA 1623 American Flight history →	DFW 07:02	DCA 10:59	10%	3%	0.7%	86%
AA 1434 American	DFW 05:11	DCA 09:05	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 1177 American Flight history →	DFW 08:40	DCA 12:42	11%	5%	0.7%	85%
AA 2623 American	DFW 07:09	DCA 11:03	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 358 United Flight history →	DFW 12:25	IAD 16:31	12%	4%	0.6%	86%
AA 2747 American Flight history →	DFW 07:01	BWI 11:08	13%	4%	0.7%	82%
AA 1906 American Flight history →	DFW 07:05	IAD 11:07	13%	3%	0.7%	86%
AA 2314 American Flight history →	DFW 07:05	BWI 11:05	13%	5%	0.7%	80%
AA 1624 American Flight history →	DFW 09:57	DCA 13:59	14%	6%	0.7%	82%
UA 1240 United Flight history →	DFW 17:15	IAD 21:24	14%	7%	0.6%	79%
AA 1629 American Flight history →	DFW 10:51	BWI 14:56	16%	6%	0.7%	68%
AA 1414 American Flight history →	DFW 11:54	DCA 15:59	16%	6%	0.7%	70%
WN 2559 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 09:20	DCA 13:15	18%	4%	0.6%	70%
WN 2595 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 11:40	BWI 15:35	19%	3%	0.6%	56%
WN 1283 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 15:10	BWI 19:10	22%	4%	0.6%	60%
F9 3788 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 09:25	BWI 13:40	23%	7%	0.7%	72%
WN 1284 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:45	BWI 20:45	24%	6%	0.6%	40%
WN 52 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 20:50	BWI 00:50	25%	5%	0.6%	29%
AA 1904 American Flight history →	DFW 14:36	IAD 18:37	25%	8%	0.7%	61%
AA 472 American Flight history →	DFW 17:15	DCA 21:31	25%	9%	0.7%	65%
AA 2752 American Flight history →	DFW 18:52	DCA 22:59	25%	8%	0.7%	62%
WN 4195 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 13:35	DCA 17:30	26%	7%	0.6%	43%
AA 3004 American Flight history →	DFW 15:17	BWI 19:24	26%	9%	0.7%	57%
AA 2077 American Flight history →	DFW 20:00	DCA 23:59	27%	7%	0.7%	64%
WN 3014 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 17:00	DCA 20:55	28%	8%	0.6%	24%
AA 1132 American Flight history →	DFW 18:44	IAD 22:52	29%	9%	0.7%	47%
AA 2251 American Flight history →	DFW 19:37	BWI 23:43	30%	9%	0.7%	62%
WN 1295 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 18:50	DCA 22:45	32%	9%	0.6%	22%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON