Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:44 pm at Washington); 5 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 37–40% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 5501 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 17:17	ALB 18:59	37%	9%	1.1%	69%
AA 5065 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 22:15	ALB 23:42	40%	7%	1.1%	56%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albany on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DCA 16:58 → ORD 18:08AA 1189	2h 55m Chicago	ORD 21:03 → ALB 00:17 +1AA 3463 · flown by Envoy	7h 19m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	DCA 17:29 → DTW 19:15DL 1454	2h 30m Detroit	DTW 21:45 → ALB 23:21DL 2660	5h 52m	96%	73%
Delta Details →	DCA 17:40 → LGA 18:59DL 5763 · flown by Republic	3h 19m New York	LGA 22:18 → ALB 23:22DL 5493 · flown by Endeavor	5h 42m	94%	71%
American Details →	DCA 17:13 → PHL 18:17AA 5248 · flown by PSA	1h 51m Philadelphia	PHL 20:08 → ALB 21:37AA 5877 · flown by Piedmont	4h 24m	83%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DCA 17:18 → PHL 18:32AA 5406 · flown by PSA	1h 36m Philadelphia	PHL 20:08 → ALB 21:37AA 5877 · flown by Piedmont	4h 19m	64%	52%
Delta Details →	DCA 19:40 → LGA 21:04DL 5752 · flown by Republic	1h 14m New York	LGA 22:18 → ALB 23:22DL 5493 · flown by Endeavor	3h 42m	63%	48%
American Details →	DCA 17:50 → CLT 19:37AA 2182	1h 03m Charlotte	CLT 20:40 → ALB 22:39AA 1858	4h 49m	69%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON