Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5406 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

OH 5406 · DCA → PHL

departs 5:18 PM ET · arrives 6:32 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at DCA that day

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3.8 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5406 · DCA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?