Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5406 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Today

OH 5406 · DCA → PHL

departs 5:24 PM ET · arrives 6:38 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
28%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.45 in

PHL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5406 · DCA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?