Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5406 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

OH 5406 · DCA → PHL

departs 5:24 PM ET · arrives 6:38 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
18%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at PHL that day

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.34 in

PHL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5406 · DCA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?