Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 32%, against 19% on a calm day. Safest: DL 410 at 06:00, 9%.

Safest bet today DL 410 DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 5510 DCA 17:29 → ATL 19:34 · 56% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Weather 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 410 Delta Flight history →	DCA 06:00	ATL 07:41	9%	2%	0.7%	95%
WN 4969 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 06:55	ATL 08:50	10%	2%	0.4%	94%
DL 330 Delta Flight history →	DCA 06:59	ATL 08:53	12%	3%	0.6%	93%
WN 1482 Southwest	DCA 07:25	ATL 09:27	13%	3%	0.4%	no record
DL 824 Delta	DCA 06:58	ATL 08:58	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
OH 5187 PSA	DCA 05:49	ATL 07:52	18%	5%	0.9%	no record
YX 4594 Republic	DCA 20:30	ATL 22:44	24%	7%	0.8%	no record
DL 832 Delta Flight history →	DCA 20:50	ATL 23:00	24%	8%	0.9%	76%
DL 343 Delta Flight history →	DCA 08:00	ATL 09:51	25%	4%	0.6%	87%worse than usual
AA 4800 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 14:13	ATL 16:27	26%	3%	0.7%	78%
AA 5050 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 06:27	ATL 08:28	26%	7%	0.8%	78%
DL 926 Delta Flight history →	DCA 10:16	ATL 12:06	27%	4%	0.5%	87%worse than usual
DL 455 Delta Flight history →	DCA 09:00	ATL 10:50	28%	4%	0.5%	86%worse than usual
YX 4576 Republic	DCA 11:39	ATL 13:48	28%	6%	0.5%	no record
DL 360 Delta Flight history →	DCA 16:00	ATL 18:06	28%	5%	0.8%	73%
MQ 4295 Envoy	DCA 08:41	ATL 10:51	30%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 2003 Delta	DCA 14:00	ATL 16:00	30%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 3976 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 08:20	ATL 10:27	32%	6%	0.6%	82%worse than usual
DL 737 Delta Flight history →	DCA 13:42	ATL 15:33	33%	4%	0.8%	77%
WN 194 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 11:45	ATL 13:35	36%	7%	0.3%	66%
WN 1149 Southwest	DCA 12:42	ATL 14:44	36%	9%	0.4%	no record
DL 380 Delta Flight history →	DCA 12:27	ATL 14:15	37%	8%	0.5%	81%worse than usual
DL 950 Delta Flight history →	DCA 19:37	ATL 21:44	37%	6%	0.9%	70%
DL 1007 Delta Flight history →	DCA 19:36	ATL 21:37	38%	7%	0.8%	79%worse than usual
DL 850 Delta Flight history →	DCA 18:30	ATL 20:35	38%	6%	0.9%	68%
AA 4733 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 17:30	ATL 19:36	41%	6%	0.9%	32%
AA 5207 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 11:55	ATL 13:59	48%	18%	0.8%	76%worse than usual
AA 5084 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 14:20	ATL 16:26	50%	13%	0.9%	32%
WN 1484 Southwest	DCA 18:54	ATL 20:56	51%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 5502 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 20:01	ATL 22:03	51%	19%	1.3%	60%worse than usual
WN 4968 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 18:55	ATL 20:50	52%	9%	0.8%	42%
AA 5510 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 17:29	ATL 19:34	56%	16%	1.3%	68%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON