Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 44%, against 33% on a calm day. Safest: AA 1804 at 22:34, 36%.

Safest bet today AA 1804 DCA 22:34 → BDL 00:01 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time Riskiest AA 5412 DCA 17:26 → BDL 18:55 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 32% on time

Weather 44% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1804 American Flight history →	DCA 22:34	BDL 00:01	36%	14%	0.6%	54%
AA 5028 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 22:32	BDL 23:59	43%	13%	1.1%	45%
AA 5377 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 17:48	BDL 19:18	46%	19%	1.0%	52%
AA 5412 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 17:26	BDL 18:55	49%	18%	1.1%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON