Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1485 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 1485 DCA 06:06 → BNA 07:02 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1163 DCA 17:46 → BNA 18:58 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1485 Southwest	DCA 06:06	BNA 07:02	5%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 1425 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 06:35	BNA 07:25	7%	2%	0.2%	87%
AA 4358 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 06:59	BNA 08:05	9%	3%	0.2%	94%
AA 4640 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 06:46	BNA 07:53	11%	4%	0.2%	96%
YX 4596 Republic	DCA 10:40	BNA 11:48	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 5708 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 10:08	BNA 11:16	15%	5%	0.7%	89%
DL 5783 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 10:01	BNA 11:00	16%	5%	0.7%	79%
DL 5707 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 20:59	BNA 22:02	16%	5%	0.6%	79%
YX 4563 Republic	DCA 13:39	BNA 14:48	18%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 5777 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 15:10	BNA 16:15	19%	4%	0.7%	76%
WN 608 Southwest	DCA 10:36	BNA 11:33	20%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1426 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 10:35	BNA 11:30	21%	5%	0.7%	82%
AA 3991 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 13:54	BNA 14:59	23%	5%	0.8%	77%
WN 4523 Southwest	DCA 19:15	BNA 20:13	25%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 1486 Southwest	DCA 13:35	BNA 14:32	27%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 1900 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 16:10	BNA 17:10	28%	7%	0.6%	46%
WN 1427 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 13:00	BNA 13:50	31%	5%	0.6%	56%
WN 1428 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 18:55	BNA 19:55	31%	9%	0.6%	46%
WN 2810 Southwest	DCA 17:05	BNA 18:02	34%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 5513 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 22:00	BNA 23:05	36%	14%	1.3%	41%
AA 1163 American Flight history →	DCA 17:46	BNA 18:58	40%	13%	1.9%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON