Today: YX 4697 at 22:14 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 31–33%.

Safest bet today YX 4697 DCA 22:14 → CAE 00:00 · 22% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5108 DCA 17:24 → CAE 19:08 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Against a calm day 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


YX 4697 Republic	DCA 22:14	CAE 00:00	22%	5%	1.3%	no record
YX 4590 Republic	DCA 17:06	CAE 18:49	24%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 5107 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:30	CAE 10:09	31%	10%	1.8%	75%
OH 5378 PSA	DCA 08:26	CAE 10:06	33%	9%	1.8%	no record
AA 5554 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 20:59	CAE 22:38	39%	16%	1.8%	39%
AA 5108 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 17:24	CAE 19:08	47%	23%	1.5%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON