Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35%, against 23% on a calm day. Safest: AA 4584 at 13:24, 22%.

Safest bet that day AA 4584 DCA 13:24 → CHS 15:16 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 1654 DCA 17:22 → CHS 19:11 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Weather 35% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4584 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 13:24	CHS 15:16	22%	5%	1.3%	79%
YX 4651 Republic	DCA 17:11	CHS 19:25	25%	8%	2.1%	no record
AA 5607 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 12:02	CHS 13:56	33%	10%	1.8%	83%worse than usual
AA 5123 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 11:51	CHS 13:40	35%	10%	1.6%	70%
AA 5568 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 13:50	CHS 15:45	35%	14%	1.6%	70%
MQ 3891 Envoy	DCA 08:59	CHS 10:52	38%	11%	1.3%	no record
AA 2203 American	DCA 20:20	CHS 22:14	39%	11%	1.8%	no record
AA 1278 American Flight history →	DCA 20:12	CHS 21:54	41%	12%	1.3%	48%
AA 5659 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:21	CHS 10:15	42%	13%	1.5%	68%worse than usual
AA 1654 American Flight history →	DCA 17:22	CHS 19:11	44%	10%	1.6%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON