Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1278 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 1278 · DCA → CHS

departs 8:12 PM ET · arrives 9:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at CHS more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CHS?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ 8pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at CHS that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at DCA that day

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3.86667 mi Precipnone

CHS (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.73 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1278 · DCA → CHS

Odds over time

How late will it get to CHS?