Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1278 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1278 · DCA → CHS

departs 8:12 PM ET · arrives 9:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at CHS more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±10 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CHS?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ CHS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.34 in

CHS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.76 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1278 · DCA → CHS

Odds over time

How late will it get to CHS?