Today: AA 3263 at 19:07 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–38%.

Safest bet today AA 3263 DCA 19:07 → CLT 20:49 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time Riskiest OH 5425 DCA 13:07 → CLT 14:36 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3263 American Flight history →	DCA 19:07	CLT 20:49	24%	6%	0.2%	52%
AA 2173 American	DCA 19:26	CLT 20:56	26%	6%	0.2%	no record
AA 804 American Flight history →	DCA 15:23	CLT 17:10	26%	6%	0.3%	48%
AA 2182 American Flight history →	DCA 17:50	CLT 19:37	26%	6%	0.2%	71%
AA 2040 American Flight history →	DCA 15:23	CLT 16:55	30%	6%	0.3%	79%
AA 5022 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 13:39	CLT 15:19	35%	8%	0.5%	58%
OH 5425 PSA	DCA 13:07	CLT 14:36	38%	7%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON