Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 804 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 804 · DCA → CLT

departs 3:23 PM ET · arrives 5:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Other factors

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.4 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 804 · DCA → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?