Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 804 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 804 · DCA → CLT

departs 3:23 PM ET · arrives 5:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±7 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ 3pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.46 in

CLT (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.34 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 804 · DCA → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?