Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 804 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

AA 804 · DCA → CLT

departs 3:23 PM ET · arrives 5:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.76 in

CLT (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 804 · DCA → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?