Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: YX 4582 at 07:59 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35–36%.

Safest bet that day YX 4582 DCA 07:59 → CVG 09:41 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5199 DCA 13:59 → CVG 15:48 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4582 Republic	DCA 07:59	CVG 09:41	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 5145 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 09:00	CVG 10:42	35%	7%	0.8%	72%
AA 5147 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 18:46	CVG 20:37	35%	9%	0.8%	60%
AA 5199 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 13:59	CVG 15:48	36%	8%	0.8%	72%
DL 5229 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 09:13	CVG 10:55	15%	4%	0.6%	85%
DL 5221 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 14:45	CVG 16:22	31%	13%	2.3%	69%
DL 5134 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 19:30	CVG 21:11	35%	19%	3.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON