Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2196 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 2196 DCA 06:01 → DAL 08:22 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1403 DCA 17:20 → DAL 19:30 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 27% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2196 Southwest	DCA 06:01	DAL 08:22	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1268 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 06:10	DAL 08:10	8%	2%	0.7%	89%
WN 295 Southwest	DCA 09:01	DAL 11:22	19%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1394 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 09:05	DAL 11:10	22%	4%	0.6%	73%
WN 3660 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 14:00	DAL 16:10	27%	5%	0.6%	58%
WN 4377 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 20:35	DAL 22:50	30%	8%	0.7%	38%
WN 1403 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 17:20	DAL 19:30	36%	8%	0.6%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON