Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:34 pm at Washington); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 36–39% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 3685 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 20:15	DSM 21:57	36%	13%	1.9%	56%
AA 5432 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 20:53	DSM 22:41	39%	23%	2.4%	70%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DCA 17:22 → ORD 18:54AA 1630	3h 37m Chicago	ORD 22:31 → DSM 00:01 +1AA 4442 · flown by Republic	7h 39m	94%	83%
United Details →	DCA 17:05 → ORD 18:30UA 654	2h 55m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → DSM 22:56UA 1839	6h 51m	95%	77%
American Details →	DCA 17:14 → PHL 18:18AA 5248 · flown by PSA	2h 47m Philadelphia	PHL 21:05 → DSM 23:08AA 5478 · flown by PSA	6h 54m	93%	66%
Southwest Details →	DCA 19:05 → MDW 20:15WN 1447	1h 50m Chicago	MDW 22:05 → DSM 23:35WN 4279	5h 30m	78%	57%
American Details →	DCA 17:11 → DFW 19:41AA 1414	2h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:05 → DSM 23:58AA 1371	7h 47m	90%	55%
American Details →	DCA 17:50 → CLT 19:37AA 2182	3h 07m Charlotte	CLT 22:44 → DSM 00:09 +1AA 2241	7h 19m	95%	54%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DCA 17:29 → DTW 19:15DL 1454	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 20:21 → DSM 21:13DL 5087 · flown by Endeavor	4h 44m	60%	52%
American Details →	DCA 20:06 → ORD 21:42AA 2903	49m Chicago	ORD 22:31 → DSM 00:01 +1AA 4442 · flown by Republic	4h 55m	52%	45%
United Details →	DCA 19:10 → ORD 20:32UA 1193	53m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → DSM 22:56UA 1839	4h 46m	54%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON