Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2869 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 2869 DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest OH 5371 DCA 15:14 → DTW 17:05 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2869 Delta Flight history →	DCA 06:00	DTW 07:29	8%	3%	0.5%	94%
AA 4616 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 10:47	DTW 12:36	12%	4%	0.7%	84%
DL 1558 Delta Flight history →	DCA 09:39	DTW 11:09	16%	5%	0.7%	86%
DL 2476 Delta Flight history →	DCA 12:23	DTW 14:00	18%	5%	0.7%	87%
DL 2030 Delta Flight history →	DCA 19:59	DTW 21:45	20%	5%	0.7%	70%
AA 5660 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 07:24	DTW 09:05	21%	9%	1.0%	85%
DL 1454 Delta Flight history →	DCA 17:29	DTW 19:15	24%	5%	0.7%	64%
AA 5597 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 21:00	DTW 22:44	33%	10%	0.9%	51%
AA 5550 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:20	DTW 10:05	33%	9%	1.2%	58%
OH 5371 PSA	DCA 15:14	DTW 17:05	39%	10%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON