tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: YX 4461 at 10:17 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 32%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4461 Republic DCA 10:17 EYW 13:44 15% 4% 0.7% no record
AA 4416 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 08:33 EYW 11:48 32% 8% 0.6% 82%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Key West on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DCA 07:15 → ORD 08:28UA 2638 2h 27m Chicago ORD 10:55 → EYW 15:19UA 3690 · flown by Republic 8h 04m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → DCA 05:00 → MIA 07:56AA 1178 1h 59m Miami MIA 09:55 → EYW 10:55AA 3515 · flown by Envoy 5h 55m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → DCA 09:35 → MIA 12:19AA 401 3h 52m Miami MIA 16:11 → EYW 17:19AA 3689 · flown by Envoy 7h 44m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → DCA 11:55 → MIA 14:38AA 1627 3h 27m Miami MIA 18:05 → EYW 19:06AA 3517 · flown by Envoy 7h 11m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → DCA 08:23 → ORD 10:00AA 4360 · flown by Republic 1h 22m Chicago ORD 11:22 → EYW 15:43AA 3996 · flown by Envoy 7h 20m 89% 79%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 15:25 → EYW 17:23DL 2168 7h 07m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → DCA 05:00 → CLT 06:26AA 365 3h 27m Charlotte CLT 09:53 → EYW 12:25AA 1816 7h 25m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 17:53 → EYW 19:51DL 2815 7h 24m 96% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DCA 08:20 → MIA 11:17AA 422 53m Miami MIA 12:10 → EYW 13:14AA 3518 · flown by Envoy 4h 54m 66% 56%
AmericanDetails → DCA 13:39 → CLT 15:19AA 5022 · flown by PSA 1h 13m Charlotte CLT 16:32 → EYW 18:48AA 2533 5h 09m 68% 48%
AmericanDetails → DCA 10:00 → DFW 12:21AA 1618 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:16 → EYW 17:09AA 1767 7h 09m 75% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON