Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:37 pm at Washington); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 54%, against 39% on a calm day. Safest: AA 5376 at 20:06, 54%.

Nonstops today


AA 5376 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 20:06	GRR 22:03	54%	29%	2.2%	61%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 17:29 → DTW 19:15DL 1454	3h 58m Detroit	DTW 23:13 → GRR 00:14 +1DL 4880 · flown by Endeavor	6h 45m	97%	85%
United Details →	DCA 17:05 → ORD 18:30UA 654	3h 10m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → GRR 23:57UA 5303 · flown by SkyWest	6h 52m	96%	75%
United Details →	DCA 18:10 → ORD 19:32UA 2148	2h 15m Chicago	ORD 21:47 → GRR 23:48UA 1819	5h 38m	89%	65%
American Details →	DCA 17:22 → ORD 18:54AA 1630	3h 38m Chicago	ORD 22:32 → GRR 00:36 +1AA 1096	7h 14m	94%	61%
Southwest Details →	DCA 19:05 → MDW 20:15WN 1447	1h 30m Chicago	MDW 21:45 → GRR 23:48WN 4572	4h 43m	75%	50%
Delta Details →	DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → GRR 23:54DL 2865	5h 24m	77%	50%
American Details →	DCA 17:50 → CLT 19:37AA 2182	3h 00m Charlotte	CLT 22:37 → GRR 00:31 +1AA 676	6h 41m	93%	45%
Delta Details →	DCA 17:40 → LGA 18:59DL 5763 · flown by Republic	2h 01m New York	LGA 21:00 → GRR 23:24DL 5659 · flown by Republic	5h 44m	79%	39%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DCA 18:59 → MSP 20:52DL 2963	48m Minneapolis	MSP 21:40 → GRR 23:59DL 1711	5h 00m	47%	37%
American Details →	DCA 17:18 → PHL 18:32AA 5406 · flown by PSA	1h 03m Philadelphia	PHL 19:35 → GRR 21:41AA 5493 · flown by PSA	4h 23m	51%	36%
American Details →	DCA 20:06 → ORD 21:42AA 2903	50m Chicago	ORD 22:32 → GRR 00:36 +1AA 1096	4h 30m	53%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON