Today: AA 5204 at 10:41 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–37%.

Safest bet today AA 5204 DCA 10:41 → GSP 12:26 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AA 5044 DCA 19:38 → GSP 21:25 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 32% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5204 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 10:41	GSP 12:26	22%	15%	0.7%	78%
AA 5267 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:52	GSP 10:32	26%	15%	1.0%	79%
OH 5468 PSA	DCA 15:02	GSP 16:48	31%	16%	0.7%	no record
AA 5208 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 17:02	GSP 18:50	36%	14%	0.7%	49%
AA 5044 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 19:38	GSP 21:25	37%	14%	1.0%	100%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON