Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via O'Hare, leaving 05:57, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Hilton Head Island on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Hilton Head Island on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DCA 05:57 → ORD 07:07AA 2304	2h 53m Chicago	ORD 10:00 → HHH 13:33AA 3862 · flown by Envoy	7h 36m	98%	82%
United Details →	DCA 07:15 → ORD 08:28UA 2638	2h 17m Chicago	ORD 10:45 → HHH 14:21UA 3581 · flown by Republic	7h 06m	100%	81%
American Details →	DCA 05:00 → CLT 06:26AA 365	3h 31m Charlotte	CLT 09:57 → HHH 11:17AA 3563 · flown by Envoy	6h 17m	98%	77%
United Details →	DCA 06:00 → EWR 07:19UA 4167 · flown by GoJet	3h 18m Newark	EWR 10:37 → HHH 12:52UA 3676 · flown by Republic	6h 52m	98%	74%
American Details →	DCA 08:30 → CLT 10:13AA 1518	2h 47m Charlotte	CLT 13:00 → HHH 14:16AA 3562 · flown by Envoy	5h 46m	91%	69%
American Details →	DCA 11:56 → CLT 13:35AA 1295	1h 34m Charlotte	CLT 15:09 → HHH 16:25AA 3560 · flown by Envoy	4h 29m	83%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON