Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1850 at 06:56 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–46%.

Safest bet that day AA 1850 DCA 06:56 → JAX 09:12 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5547 DCA 20:01 → JAX 22:11 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1850 American	DCA 06:56	JAX 09:12	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1992 American Flight history →	DCA 06:59	JAX 09:04	13%	4%	0.7%	93%
AA 4340 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 11:58	JAX 14:09	22%	5%	1.3%	68%
AA 1829 American	DCA 14:55	JAX 17:11	42%	9%	2.3%	no record
AA 2816 American Flight history →	DCA 14:59	JAX 17:08	44%	10%	2.3%	68%worse than usual
AA 5547 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 20:01	JAX 22:11	46%	15%	1.9%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON