Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2149 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35%.

Safest bet that day AA 2149 DCA 07:45 → LAS 10:11 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 978 DCA 16:25 → LAS 18:30 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 19% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2149 American	DCA 07:45	LAS 10:11	16%	7%	0.5%	no record
AA 2051 American Flight history →	DCA 07:59	LAS 10:09	16%	6%	0.4%	83%
WN 2232 Southwest	DCA 16:35	LAS 18:44	35%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 978 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 16:25	LAS 18:30	35%	10%	0.6%	19%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	1h 38m Minneapolis	MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262	7h 31m	96%	89%
Southwest Details →	DCA 06:00 → MCI 07:40WN 358	1h 01m Kansas City	MCI 08:41 → LAS 09:43WN 2902	6h 43m	94%	89%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869	1h 30m Detroit	DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334	7h 12m	93%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON