Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:52 pm at Washington); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 18:30, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Little Rock on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Little Rock on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Little Rock is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 23:05 → LIT 23:41DL 2083	6h 11m	90%	70%
American Details →	DCA 19:07 → CLT 20:49AA 3263	1h 57m Charlotte	CLT 22:46 → LIT 23:56AA 3444 · flown by Envoy	5h 49m	76%	62%
United Details →	DCA 18:10 → ORD 19:32UA 2148	1h 54m Chicago	ORD 21:26 → LIT 23:18UA 4542 · flown by GoJet	6h 08m	91%	61%
Southwest Details →	DCA 18:55 → BNA 19:55WN 1428	2h 51m Nashville	BNA 22:46 → LIT 00:10 +1WN 603	6h 15m	93%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DCA 19:10 → ORD 20:32UA 1193	54m Chicago	ORD 21:26 → LIT 23:18UA 4542 · flown by GoJet	5h 08m	65%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON